“The world ends on Thursday”, Marius Müller-Westernhagen sings these words in his song “war“.
Since last Thursday, February 24, 2022, he is back war. Wladimir Putin has its own invasion of the Ukraine started. For the first time since the Yugoslav wars in the 1990s, there is a large one war in Europe. Russia’s annexation of Crimea eight years ago was just the beginning.
Many people now even fear a third world war. It will be Russia later Ukraine attack other countries as well, perhaps even Germany? Is there even a nuclear war? A first prognosis: two scenarios seem plausible, one of which is worrying.
War in Ukraine: could Putin threaten Germany too?
There are 1,200 kilometers as the crow flies between the Ukrainian capital of Kiev and Berlin. There is a war almost on our doorstep that Vladimir Putin has started. Only Poland still lies between the combat zone and the Federal Republic.
In this situation, many people have concerns: Does the Kremlin leadership already have a next goal in mind? Will Germany be involved in a war, even in a third world war?
The rhetoric of the Russian ruler Vladimir Putin feeds further fears. He recently warned Western states not to “interfere sideways in what is happening”.
Anyone who tries to obstruct Russia or threatens his country faces dire consequences. In this context, he stressed that Russia is one of the most powerful nuclear powers in the world (read more about him talking about him here). And then, a few days later, he put nuclear weapons on alert, among other things.
War in Ukraine: Will Germany be pulled militarily? In this case, there is a risk of a NATO alliance
However, if one tries to look at the situation as objectively as possible, one can see that Ukraine is neither a NATO nor an EU member state. This means that Germany and other NATO countries have no military obligation to provide assistance.
This duty of assistance, the so-called case of a NATO alliance, is regulated in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty of 1949. It states that an armed attack on one country is considered an attack on all others.
However, the federal government has now decided to change course. Although Ukraine is not a NATO partner, Berlin will now deliver arms to the country and support sweeping sanctions against Russia. In Moscow’s eyes, Germany as Ukraine’s military supporter could be seen as a war party.
+++ News blog about the war in Ukraine +++
First scenario: Putin advances further after the war in Ukraine – the case of the NATO alliance occurs
Here, however, we come to the first of two realistic scenarios in which an even bigger war could break out in Europe.
If, after conquering Ukraine, Putin stretched out his hands to other states that only gained independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union and joined NATO and the EU, this would be exactly the case with the alliance.
The Baltic countries belong to NATO
These countries notably include the Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia. Poland, a former member of the Warsaw Pact, could also be targeted by Putin. US President Joe Biden has already made it clear: “The US will defend every inch of NATO territory with concentrated American power. An attack on a NATO country is an attack on all of us ”.
+++ War in Ukraine: scary video shows how the Russians razed an apartment +++
So far the NATO alliance has only happened once in history: precisely on September 12, 2001, shortly after the Islamist terror attacks in the US.
Putin now has nothing more to lose diplomatically, relations with the West are at a new low and his country is heavily sanctioned. So he could definitely cut the tablecloth on the West, at least if he has sufficient support from the People’s Republic of China.
More articles on War in Ukraine:
Germany is also determined to defend alliance states and has only recently sent more troops to Lithuania. France will send more troops to Romania and the United States has also increased its troop presence in Eastern Europe. As a result, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced Thursday that defense plans would be activated to allow for faster troop movements. Stoltenberg: “We have no plans to send NATO troops to Ukraine. We are doing something defensive.”
War in Ukraine: a regional conflict could turn into a conflagration
As long as Putin limits his attack on Ukraine, a regional conflict will remain. However, any steps further west would cause a conflagration.
Politologist Professor Dr. Johannes Varwick considers this scenario unlikely, but does not want to rule it out entirely. In an interview with the German editorial network, Varwick said: “I do not see any acute danger to other countries, because NATO’s deterrence at the eastern borders is successful. But the situation is delicate and it is not a law of nature that Russia you don’t start a nuclear war, after all. Because Putin hasn’t acted rationally in a long time. “
Do you threaten the third world war between Putin and NATO? This second scenario is scarier
A second scenario seems more realistic at the moment and would be just as dangerous: an accidental accident that could set off a chain of events in the highly tense situation.
For example, it would be possible for a Russian missile to strike NATO territory on the Ukrainian-Polish border. The Black Sea is also considered a dangerous area. “All it takes is for a missile to move away and hit a NATO ship, and then it becomes dangerous,” said former Supreme Commander of NATO troops in Europe, James Stavridis.
In this case, coolness is needed in the capitals of the NATO states and in Moscow. In view of the escalation in Ukraine, however, the communication channels currently appear to be dead.
Putin is threatening to use his nuclear weapons and has alerted his competent forces. You can read more about Putin’s nuclear war threat in this article.