After the period of shock following the collapse of FTX, cryptocurrencies are entering a new non-uninimous phase.
Cryptocurrencies at a crossroads
After ten days under the influence of the downtrend, are cryptocurrencies already recovering from the crisis? While we feared a large period of capitulation, the price of the latter is currently in full recovery. Bitcoin, for example, has seen its value rise 6% in the past 24 hours.
Enough to give some hope to the crypto sphere as some experts point out that this period of calm could precede good and bad news. According to Michaël van de Poppe, the horizontal evolution phenomenon could still continue throughout the week, where BTC should trade around $16,000. However, the expert believes that the small orange coin should rally to the highest level around $18,000.
But be careful, Michaël van de Poppe did not comment on the sustainability of the phenomenon or on the possibility of a backside. It could therefore be that this rally is only temporary and that a new downtrend unfolds if there is an upcoming bankruptcy incident or scandal in the cryptocurrency.
Capitulation would still be relevant
For others, this improvement in the price of cryptocurrencies shouldn’t be taken literally. The Chief Crypto Analyst tells a completely different story and thinks the current period would be just a test. Thus, the tendency would be to capitulate again and again, while the patterns drawn by the courses would only be traps.
The expert also warns of the environmental hype that is sweeping the cryptocurrency sector and which could lead holders, happy to see their favorite coin at $16,000, to buy some tokens before selling them back at the slightest jolt, which would bring the price of Bitcoin and his other consorts down again. The Crypto boss therefore seems to think that this resistance would only be a respite before the orange coin reaches $12,000.
Halving as a new goal
Meanwhile, other analyzes allow themselves to be seen further and, at the risk of denying the most optimistic ones, invoke a definitive improvement only in 2024. This hypothesis had already been advanced by Jesse Powell before being taken up by Pantera Capital. The crypto hedge fund therefore believes that April 20, 2024 will be a key date. Bitcoin will halve, as per tradition every 4 years, which should cause its value to explode.
The next halving is expected to take place on April 20, 2024. The mining reward will increase from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block. […] If the demand for new bitcoins remains constant and the supply of new bitcoins is halved, this will drive up the price. We have emphasized over the years that the halving is a big event, but it takes years to happen. The typical low is 1.3 years before the halving and, on average, the market peak is 1.3 years after.
Extract from the Pantera Capital article on the halving
However, these predictions are to be taken with a grain of salt as Pantera Capital specifies that they were made by comparing previous cycles and identifying a pattern. Therefore, the document evokes a definitive low of Bitcoin around December 30, 2022, followed by a large-scale rally. However, this data will only be accurate if the current situation does not follow the pattern of its predecessors. So there’s still a large margin for error, especially since many experts believe the year 2022 is quite unique from what we’ve seen before.
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