Cryptographic technical debriefing of the month of December

While the Christmas holidays are in full swing, BTC continues its epic and signs us a close at $16,530. This makes for the second consecutive red monthly close, which does not please Crypto investors. So what should we expect for early 2023? Here is my macro analysis of the digital market.

Dollar index analysis

To know whether the cryptocurrency market will be receptive at the start of the year, we need to start with an analysis of the dollar. Indeed, the latter will allow us to know whether capital will flow towards risky assets, and therefore digital assets. In this 3-day view, we see a parabolic curve followed by a correction below Fibonacci 0.382. We managed to draw a first reaction on the monthly support at $103.2 earlier in the week, but this does not in any way indicate a bullish rebound. For the moment, no important structure or signal foresees a rise in the Dollar, even if this first reaction is significant, it is still too early to decide. I would even argue that this green candle could just be a rebound in this decline and that the DXY could continue its fall to the halved retracement (0.5 Fibonacci), or even to the Long Loading Zone ($99). It is therefore likely that risky assets will benefit from a little more energy during this month of January.

Cryptos bets on the sidelines

On this chart I have shown you the TOTAL-MarketCap Crypto (candlesticks), the SP500 (blue) and the DXY (orange) that we analyzed earlier. Interestingly, cryptocurrencies are overlooked by investors and do not benefit from the dollar’s fall unlike the SP500. The release of capital is exclusively heading into the traditional market which is causing extreme pain in the digital asset market. In December, however, we closed on an important support, i.e. $756B which corresponds to the old ATH of 2018, but also to the rebound of January 2022. For the moment it is recovering in green for 2023, but after 3 days of activity it is still too early to shout a reaction. So it will be difficult to recharge the crypto market if new capital does not arrive, this phenomenon is certainly linked to the scandal that has been tormenting the ecosystem for more than three months.

Bitcoin analysis

On this weekly scale, we clearly see Bitcoin’s slow and painful fall. We can see the December close acting as support and the compression is underway. The price looks for a direction and the indecision is supported by the many feints (materialized by wicks). These false exits test bulls and bears alike, but neither has yet initiated a move. Assuming that digital assets do not benefit from capital inflows, we could still find ourselves in a difficult situation.

Conclusion

To conclude I would say that the crypto market is not in the spotlight and this year 2023 could be more difficult than expected. I encourage you to follow the dollar index and the price of BTC to identify a potential capital inflow. This analysis is in no way investment advice, I encourage you to get DYOR on your side.

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