Bitcoin Falling to $5,000 or Rising to $250,000 by Year’s End? Here are four predictions from industry experts.
If the year 2022 was particularly tough for the crypto ecosystem, that doesn’t stop some experts from making predictions on the price of the queen of cryptocurrencies, bitcoin. As a reminder, bitcoin has lost nearly 70% of its value since its all-time high in November 2021, at $69,000. What scenarios can we foresee in 2013?
• The most pessimistic: 5,000 dollars
In a note released in early December, British bank Standard Chartered estimated that bitcoin could drop as low as $5,000 in 2023, plunging another 70% from its current level.
“More and more cryptocurrency firms and exchanges find themselves with insufficient liquidity, leading to more bankruptcies and a collapse in investor confidence in digital assets,” said Eric Robertsen, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered Bank, in a statement. a note entitled “The surprises of the financial markets of 2023”.
For the latter, the fall of the crypto ecosystem should be correlated with a rise in gold, the price of which could rise by 30% to 2250 dollars an ounce.
“The resurgence of gold comes in 2023 [également] when stocks resume their bear market and the correlation between stock and bond prices becomes negative again,” he said.
• Most realistic: $10,000
For his part, investor Mark Mobius remains a bit more optimistic than Standard Chartered, even as the psychological $10,000 mark is starting to worry many investors. According to him, the drop in the price of bitcoin will be explained by the continuation of the rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which wants to fight against inflation.
“With higher interest rates, the allure of holding or buying bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies becomes less appealing, as simply holding the coin does not generate interest,” the latter told CNBC.
CNBC also recalls that the latter was right last year, estimating that bitcoin would drop to 20,000 before the end of the year, when in May it was trading at around $28,000.
• Most optimistic: $50,000
This prediction is made by finance professor at the University of Sussex, Carol Alexander. According to her, following the failure of FTX at the end of the year, the crypto ecosystem will become more mature and ready to move towards a good recovery.
According to her, bitcoin could exceed $30,000 in the first quarter, and darken towards $50,000 in subsequent quarters.
“In 2023, there will be a managed bull market, not a bubble, so we won’t see a price overshoot like before,” Carol Alexander told CNBC. “We will see a month or two of flat trend prices, interspersed with periods of turbulence and possibly some short-lived slumps.”
• Craziest: $250,000
Prominent pro-bitcoin billionaire Tim Draper made the craziest prediction for the price of the queen of cryptocurrencies. It is expected to hit $250,000 by mid-2023. At the current price of bitcoin, this would require bitcoin to rise more than 1,400%.
“My guess is that since women control 80% of retail spending and only 1 in 7 bitcoin wallets are currently held by women, the dam is about to break,” Tim Draper told CNBC.
Why not. The investor is particularly confident in the next bitcoin halving, which will take place in March 2024, which consists of halving the rewards granted to bitcoin miners every four years. Indeed and as a reminder, the miners who secure the bitcoin blockchain are rewarded in cryptocurrency for each validation of the block in the blockchain.
An event that could in fact have a positive upward impact on bitcoin, since it creates more scarcity on this cryptocurrency.
“I suspect that halvening will look good in 2024,” considers Tim Draper.
Despite these four predictions, some have decided to stop with this kind of scenario. This is the case, for example, of Laith Khalaf, financial analyst at AJ Bell.
“We could be sitting here talking about next year and bitcoin could be at $5,000 or $50,000, that wouldn’t surprise me because the market is heavily driven by sentiment,” he told CNBC. .
Either way, we can never tell you enough about BFM Crypto – you should only invest what you are ready to lose.