Cryptocurrencies take color back – New week in the financial markets, and another important week. As financial markets begin to rally again, fourth quarter results are expected later in the week. Among them, those of Netflix, Goldman Sachs or even Morgan Stanley. On the cryptocurrency side, a new exchange called GTX is being studied, a project led by the former top management of the crypto investment fund Capital of the three arrows. Bitcoin attracts capital and moves above $21,000. Are risky assets attractive again? This is the Weekly Macro Point!
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Bitcoin is changing momentum!
After several failed attempts to change dynamics, is this time different? Bitcoin changed momentum by closing above $18,400took the opportunity to join the resistance at $21,000 :
The price of Bitcoin has increased by almost 40% from lowest marked a $15,500. The support created around $16,000 kept, and also allowed quite a lot rebound. Volatility seems to be back for the king of cryptocurrencies. From now on, the course is at the level of a double resistance with the presence of downtrend line. This has already pushed the price back in March 2022, it could stall again (red arrow). On a break of this downtrend line, the price might move rapidly up $24,500. If the buyers push, the price could reach the weekly resistance at $31,000 (green Arrow).
The momentum is bullish, continues to show ascending highs and lows. For the time being, there are no alarming signs on the momentum side.
Bitcoin is punishing short sellers (shorts) as shown in this graphic:
Derivatives markets allow traders to do thisbuy or sell goods that are not in their possession. These contracts include liquidation prices, and when the price reaches this price, you lose your entire position. Here, we see that many actors wore shorts, the liquidation peak is the highest since the end of July.
Risk off: the dollar index falls, gold continues to rise
The dollar returns to the support at 102.5 points
The dollar index is falling, and cryptocurrencies seem to finally benefit, such as Bitcoin, which is rising by almost 40% from the lowest. The dollar returned to the level of 102.5 support points :
The dollar index is bearish for many months. Continues to hit new lows, but a rebound it is possible at the level of 102.5 support points. Indeed, it is a key level, which allowed for a rebound in May 2022. The institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) is bearish, it might push the price back in case of a slight bounce.
You will have to wait a frank break of the support to observe the scenario represented by the red arrow on the graph. As long as the dollar index is bearish, risky assets can benefit.
Gold is in the short charging zone at $1,900
Gold is the asset that benefits most from the fall of the dollar. Currently the course is in shorts charging area located between $1,900 And $1,970 :
Gold goes to a resistance zone. Indeed, the shorts charging area (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement) is a resistance area, where sellers can regain control. You also have to imagine that buyers at the lower end of the range will want to accept profits, and this is a great area to get some profits. It is possible that the price marks pauseand which is heading towards the moving averages 9 and 18.
The momentum is bullish, the movement even seems very strong (slope of the bullish trendline). You may need to pause the price as it climbs in a straight line from the low marked at $1,615.
The US market is at major resistance levels
The S&P 500 could be rejected at $4,000
The S&P 500 is in contact with the downtrend line. This already has refused the course three times :
The resistance to $3,900 it seems to be obsolete, but it is not acquired yet. Indeed, the downtrend line may refuse the course again. Furthermore, the course is at the level of first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement), a resistence not negligible. If the buyers manage to break through these resistances, the price could head towards the resistance at $4,100 then towards the shorts charging area Between $4,300 And $4,500.
The momentum is solid, it will be necessary to continue to show ascending lows and highs. A powerful movement could appear in the case of the above development 58 of CSR. Indeed, it is a level that has been blocked for several months.
Towards a rejection for the NASDAQ?
The NASDAQ could be too to decline at the level of downtrend line :
In case of refusal to downtrend linethe price could go down towards the brackets at $9,700. On the other hand, in case of a break of the downtrend line, the price could afford an uptrend until the next resistance at $12,000. This is a major resistance that will need to be broken to find colors on this asset.
Momentum is close to the downtrendline, a rejection could occur in the coming days. The momentum is building to contract in the long run, the break of this triangle could lead volatility. If the top of the triangle breaks down, bullish volatility could arise.
the Bitcoin regains short-term bullish momentum. The momentum is definitely bullish, but a rejection at the level of the downtrendline remains possible. This will need to be cracked to find colors on this resource. The dollar index continues to fall, gold and risky assets benefit. Gold is in a resistance zone, a breakout could be seen here. The US market for its part is close to significant resistance, sellers have the opportunity to regain control of the course. Risky assets are becoming attractive again, will 2023 allow for a recovery?